Does NIDF’s ₦113.54 offer price mean the current market price could fall?

Yes,
but the ₦113.54 offer price does NOT automatically mean NIDF’s market price will fall to ₦113.54.

Here’s the simplest way to understand it.

Think of NIDF like a shop

There are two different prices:

₦147.70 = the price people were paying for NIDF units on the NGX.
₦113.54 = the special price at which NIDF is offering new units in this Series 12 offer.

NIDF itself says the ₦113.54 offer price is 23.13% below the ₦147.70 NGX closing price on September 22.

So:

₦113.54 is an offer/subscription price, not a prediction that NIDF will trade at ₦113.54.

So why would they sell at ₦113.54 when the market price is ₦147.70?

Because NIDF wants to raise up to ₦45 billion by issuing about 396.33 million new units.

It’s basically saying:

“We are raising new money. Investors who subscribe to this offer can enter at ₦113.54 per unit.”

The money raised is intended to support additional infrastructure investments.

But here’s the important part

There can be downward pressure on the market price because someone might think:

“Why should I buy NIDF for ₦147 when new investors are getting it for ₦113.54?”

That could make some existing or potential investors willing to sell or wait.

But it does NOT mean the price must fall to ₦113.54.

The actual NGX market price will still depend on buyers and sellers, demand, the fund’s performance, distributions, and how investors value the new units.

Interestingly, the latest market data I found shows NIDF at ₦162.40 on September 28, rather than falling toward ₦113.54.